Risk Surprises And Black Swans

Download or read book Risk, Surprises and Black Swans written by Terje Aven and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-08-13 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

Download or read book The Illusion of Risk Control written by Gilles Motet and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-01 with total page 113 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. This book explores the implications of acknowledging uncertainty and black swans for regulation of high-hazard technologies, for stakeholder acceptability of potentially hazardous activities and for risk governance. The conventional approach to risk assessment, which combines the likelihood of an event and the severity of its consequences, is poorly suited to situations where uncertainty and ambiguity are prominent features of the risk landscape. The new definition of risk used by ISO, “the effect of uncertainty on [achievement of] one’s objectives”, recognizes this paradigm change. What lessons can we draw from the management of fire hazards in Edo-era Japan? Are there situations in which increasing uncertainty allows more effective safety management? How should society address the risk of potentially planet-destroying scientific experiments? This book presents insights from leading scholars in different disciplines to challenge current risk governance and safety management practice.

Download or read book Enterprise Risk Management written by Terje Aven and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-12-06 with total page 195 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Enterprise Risk Management: Advances on its Foundation and Practice relates the fundamental enterprise risk management (ERM) concepts and current generic risk assessment and management principles that have been influential in redefining the risk field over the last decade. It defines ERM with a particular focus on understanding the nexus between risk, uncertainty, knowledge and performance. The book argues that there is critical need for ERM concepts, principles and methods to adapt to the latest and most influential risk management developments, as there are several issues with outdated ERM theories and practices; problems include the inability to effectively and systematically balance both opportunity and downside performance, or relying too much on narrow probability-based perspectives for risk assessment and decision-making. It expands traditional loss-based risk principles into new and innovative performance-risk frameworks, and presents fundamental risk principles that have recently been developed by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). All relevant statistical and risk concepts are clearly explained and interpreted using minimal mathematical notation. The focus of the book is centered around ideas and principles, more than technicalities. The book is primarily intended for risk professionals, researchers and graduate students in the fields of engineering and business, and should also be of interest to executive managers and policy makers with some background in quantitative methods such as statistics.

Download or read book The Gray Rhino written by Michele Wucker and published by St. Martin's Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future. A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet all-too-often neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled.

Download or read book Stalking the Black Swan written by Kenneth A. Posner and published by Columbia University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-31 with total page 284 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.

Download or read book Natech Risk Assessment and Management written by Elisabeth Krausmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-11-01 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Natech Risk Assessment and Management: Reducing the Risk of Natural-Hazard Impact on Hazardous Installations covers the entire spectrum of issues pertinent to Natech risk assessment and management. After a thorough introduction of the topic that includes definitions of terms, authors Krausmann, Cruz, and Salzano discuss various examples of international frameworks and provide a detailed view of the implementation of Natech Risk Management in the EU and OECD. There is a dedicated chapter on natural-hazard prediction and measurement from an engineering perspective, as well as a consideration of the impact of climate change on Natech risk. The authors also discuss selected Natech accidents, including recent examples, and provide specific 'lessons learned' from each, as well as an analysis of all essential elements of Natech risk assessment, such as plant layout, substance hazards, and equipment vulnerability. The final section of the book is dedicated to the reduction of Natech risk, including structural and organizational prevention and mitigation measures, as well as early warning issues and emergency foreword planning. - Teaches chemical engineers and safety managers how to safeguard chemical processing plants and pipelines against natural disasters - Includes international regulations and explains how to conduct a natural hazards risk assessment, both of which are supported by examples and case studies - Discusses a broad range of hazards and the multidisciplinary aspects of risk assessment in a detailed and accessible style

Download or read book Knowledge in Risk Assessment and Management written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-12-19 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Exciting new developments in risk assessment and management Risk assessment and management is fundamentally founded on the knowledge available on the system or process under consideration. While this may be self-evident to the laymen, thought leaders within the risk community have come to recognize and emphasize the need to explicitly incorporate knowledge (K) in a systematic, rigorous, and transparent framework for describing and modeling risk. Featuring contributions by an international team of researchers and respected practitioners in the field, this book explores the latest developments in the ongoing effort to use risk assessment as a means for characterizing knowledge and/or lack of knowledge about a system or process of interest. By offering a fresh perspective on risk assessment and management, the book represents a significant contribution to the development of a sturdier foundation for the practice of risk assessment and for risk-informed decision making. How should K be described and evaluated in risk assessment? How can it be reflected and taken into account in formulating risk management strategies? With the help of numerous case studies and real-world examples, this book answers these and other critical questions at the heart of modern risk assessment, while identifying many practical challenges associated with this explicit framework. This book, written by international scholars and leaders in the field, and edited to make coverage both conceptually advanced and highly accessible: Offers a systematic, rigorous and transparent perspective and framework on risk assessment and management, explicitly strengthening the links between knowledge and risk Clearly and concisely introduces the key risk concepts at the foundation of risk assessment and management Features numerous cases and real-world examples, many of which focused on various engineering applications across an array of industries Knowledge of Risk Assessment and Management is a must-read for risk assessment and management professionals, as well as graduate students, researchers and educators in the field. It is also of interest to policy makers and business people who are eager to gain a better understanding of the foundations and boundaries of risk assessment, and how its outcomes should be used for decision-making.