Calculated Risks

Download or read book Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2015-11-10 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Download or read book Calculated Risk written by Jonna Doolittle Hoppes and published by Santa Monica Press. This book was released on 2005-03-01 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Famous for leading the Tokyo Raid, America's first strike against Japan in World War II, Jimmy Doolittle led a remarkable life as an American pilot. This firsthand account by his granddaughter reveals an extraordinary individual—a scientist with a doctorate in aeronautical engineering from MIT, an aviation pioneer who was the first to fly across the United States in less than 24 hours and the first to fly “blind” (using only his plane’s instruments), a barnstormer well known for aerobatics, a popular racing pilot who won every major air race at least once, recipient of both the Congressional Medal of Honor and Presidential Medal of Freedom, a four-star general, and commander of both the 8th, 12th and 15th Air Forces. This memoir provides insights into the public and private world of Jimmy Doolittle and his family and sheds light on the drives and motivation of one of America's most influential and ambitious aviators.

Download or read book Calculated Risks written by Joseph V. Rodricks and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1994-01-28 with total page 286 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public concern regarding environmental pollution and chemicals present in foods, consumer products, and the work place are at an all time high. Whilst there is widespread awareness, confusion still reigns, aggravated by conflicting reports concerning carcinogens in food and drinking water, or about chemicals present in medicines and household products that may cause birth defects. The effort to understand how these pollutants and chemical products may harm human health is led by scientists in the disciplines of toxicology, epidemiology and risk assessment. The central purpose of this book is to describe how scientists come to understand the toxic properties of such chemicals and the health risks they may pose. Rather than attempting to expose governmental and corporate ignorance, negligence or corruption, this book explores the underlying scientific issues. It presents a practical and balanced clarification of the scientific basis for our concerns and uncertainties. It should serve to refocus the debate.

Download or read book Calculated Risks written by Seanan McGuire and published by Astra Publishing House. This book was released on 2021-02-23 with total page 450 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The tenth book in the fast-paced InCryptid urban fantasy series returns to the mishaps of the Price family, eccentric cryptozoologists who safeguard the world of magical creatures living in secret among humans. Just when Sarah Zellaby, adopted Price cousin and telepathic ambush predator, thought that things couldn't get worse, she's had to go and prove herself wrong. After being kidnapped and manipulated by her birth family, she has undergone a transformation called an instar, reaching back to her Apocritic origins to metamorphize. While externally the same, she is internally much more powerful, and much more difficult to control. Even by herself. After years of denial, the fact that she will always be a cuckoo has become impossible to deny. Now stranded in another dimension with a handful of allies who seem to have no idea who she is--including her cousin Annie and her maybe-boyfriend Artie, both of whom have forgotten their relationship--and a bunch of cuckoos with good reason to want her dead, Sarah must figure out not only how to contend with her situation, but with the new realities of her future. What is she now? Who is she now? Is that person someone she can live with? And when all is said and done, will she be able to get the people she loves, whether or not they've forgotten her, safely home?

Download or read book Risking written by David Viscott and published by . This book was released on 1987-10 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Download or read book Calculated Risks written by Kenneth A. Rogers and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-04-15 with total page 218 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This well-documented study examines one of the increasingly pressing problems for US homeland security: the storage and management of radioactive waste. Despite pressing homeland security and energy security concerns associated with highly radioactive waste, political considerations have prevented policy makers from adopting adequate long-term solutions to the problem. This book explores nuclear waste problems through the broader lens of federal, state and local government and the resultant constraints on policy that emerge within the American political system. Presenting specific case studies to highlight the deficiencies in current policy and planning as well as the possibility of terrorist activity, it is highly suited to courses on security studies and environmental politics.

Download or read book Reckoning with Risk written by Gerd Gigerenzer and published by Penguin UK. This book was released on 2003-04-24 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Are ordinary people able to reason with risk? Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.