Bayesian Rationality

Download or read book Bayesian Rationality written by Mike Oaksford and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2007-02-22 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.

Download or read book Bayesian Philosophy of Science written by Jan Sprenger and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-08-23 with total page 384 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should we reason in science? Jan Sprenger and Stephan Hartmann offer a refreshing take on classical topics in philosophy of science, using a single key concept to explain and to elucidate manifold aspects of scientific reasoning. They present good arguments and good inferences as being characterized by their effect on our rational degrees of belief. Refuting the view that there is no place for subjective attitudes in 'objective science', Sprenger and Hartmann explain the value of convincing evidence in terms of a cycle of variations on the theme of representing rational degrees of belief by means of subjective probabilities (and changing them by Bayesian conditionalization). In doing so, they integrate Bayesian inference—the leading theory of rationality in social science—with the practice of 21st century science. Bayesian Philosophy of Science thereby shows how modeling such attitudes improves our understanding of causes, explanations, confirming evidence, and scientific models in general. It combines a scientifically minded and mathematically sophisticated approach with conceptual analysis and attention to methodological problems of modern science, especially in statistical inference, and is therefore a valuable resource for philosophers and scientific practitioners.

Download or read book Bounded Rationality written by Sanjit Dhami and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2022-07-12 with total page 553 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Two leaders in the field explore the foundations of bounded rationality and its effects on choices by individuals, firms, and the government. Bounded rationality recognizes that human behavior departs from the perfect rationality assumed by neoclassical economics. In this book, Sanjit Dhami and Cass R. Sunstein explore the foundations of bounded rationality and consider the implications of this approach for public policy and law, in particular for questions about choice, welfare, and freedom. The authors, both recognized as experts in the field, cover a wide range of empirical findings and assess theoretical work that attempts to explain those findings. Their presentation is comprehensive, coherent, and lucid, with even the most technical material explained accessibly. They not only offer observations and commentary on the existing literature but also explore new insights, ideas, and connections. After examining the traditional neoclassical framework, which they refer to as the Bayesian rationality approach (BRA), and its empirical issues, Dhami and Sunstein offer a detailed account of bounded rationality and how it can be incorporated into the social and behavioral sciences. They also discuss a set of models of heuristics-based choice and the philosophical foundations of behavioral economics. Finally, they examine libertarian paternalism and its strategies of “nudges.”

Download or read book Biostatistics written by George G. Woodworth and published by Wiley-Interscience. This book was released on 2004-09-06 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An essential introductory text linking traditional biostatistics with bayesian methods In recent years, Bayesian methods have seen an explosion of interest, with applications in fields including biochemistry, ecology, medicine, oncology, pharmacology, and public health. As an interpretive system integrating data with observation, the Bayesian approach provides a nuanced yet mathematically rigorous means of conceptualizing biomedical statistics–from diagnostic tests to DNA evidence. Biostatistics: A Bayesian Introduction offers a pioneering approach by presenting the foundations of biostatistics through the Bayesian lens. Using easily understood, classic Dutch Book thought experiments to derive subjective probability from a simple principle of rationality, the book connects statistical science with scientific reasoning. The author shows how to compute, interpret, and report Bayesian statistical analyses in practice, and illustrates how to reinterpret traditional statistical reporting–such as confidence intervals, margins of error, and one-sided p-values–in Bayesian terms. Topics covered include: Probability and subjective probability Distributions and descriptive statistics Continuous probability distributions Comparing rates and means Linear models and statistical adjustment Logistic regression and adjusted odds ratios Survival analysis Hierarchical models and meta-analysis Decision theory and sample size determination The book includes extensive problem sets and references in each chapter, as well as complete instructions on computer analysis with the versatile SAS and WinBUGS software packages as well as the Excel spreadsheet program. For professionals and students, Biostatistics: A Bayesian Introduction offers an unique, real-world entry point into a remarkable alternative method of interpreting statistical data.

Download or read book Rational Decisions written by Ken Binmore and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-12-29 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.

Download or read book Probability Theory written by and published by Allied Publishers. This book was released on 2013 with total page 436 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Probability theory

Download or read book The Handbook of Rationality written by Markus Knauff and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2021-12-14 with total page 879 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The first reference on rationality that integrates accounts from psychology and philosophy, covering descriptive and normative theories from both disciplines. Both analytic philosophy and cognitive psychology have made dramatic advances in understanding rationality, but there has been little interaction between the disciplines. This volume offers the first integrated overview of the state of the art in the psychology and philosophy of rationality. Written by leading experts from both disciplines, The Handbook of Rationality covers the main normative and descriptive theories of rationality—how people ought to think, how they actually think, and why we often deviate from what we can call rational. It also offers insights from other fields such as artificial intelligence, economics, the social sciences, and cognitive neuroscience. The Handbook proposes a novel classification system for researchers in human rationality, and it creates new connections between rationality research in philosophy, psychology, and other disciplines. Following the basic distinction between theoretical and practical rationality, the book first considers the theoretical side, including normative and descriptive theories of logical, probabilistic, causal, and defeasible reasoning. It then turns to the practical side, discussing topics such as decision making, bounded rationality, game theory, deontic and legal reasoning, and the relation between rationality and morality. Finally, it covers topics that arise in both theoretical and practical rationality, including visual and spatial thinking, scientific rationality, how children learn to reason rationally, and the connection between intelligence and rationality.